SAN DIEGO, CA: July 11, 2007– While most San Diegans approve of the job being done by Mayor Jerry Sanders, that support has fallen significantly between May and early July according to survey information released today by the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI).
In the latest SDI/CERC Public Opinion Barometer, 60 percent of San Diegans approve of Mayor Sanders’ job performance compared to 21 percent who disapprove. This is down from May, when 64 percent of residents approved of the job the Mayor was doing and 17 percent disapproved.
Among registered voters, the drop was somewhat more pronounced going from 70 percent approval in May to 60 percent in July. The Mayor continues to enjoy much stronger support from ideological conservatives and Republicans. However, ideological and partisan considerations have been swamped by the Mayor’s handling of the situation related to Sunroad’s building near Montgomery Field and the overall mood of the populace. The Barometer finds that the more importance respondents attach to the Sunroad dispute and the more pessimistic residents are about the direction of the City, the less likely they are to approve of the Mayor’s job performance.
The movement in City Attorney Mike Aguirre’s approval ratings since May is not statistically significant. Forty-five percent of San Diegans approve of the job the City Attorney is doing with 29 percent disapproving. In May, the City attorney’s approval ratings stood at 47 percent approve to 23 percent disapprove. However, since January approval of his job performance has fallen 7 percent and disapproval has increased by 4 percent.
According to Barometer’s pollster, Competitive Edge Research & Communication’s John Nienstedt, Aguirre’s job performance numbers declined significantly among residents living North of Interstate 8. “Due to traditionally high turn-out in the northern half of the city, it is very difficult to win a City-wide election without carrying that area. Above I-8 just as many residents disapprove of the way the City Attorney is doing his job as approve.”
The survey also looked at awareness of the controversy surrounding the Sunroad Enterprises building near Montgomery Field. Fifty-seven percent of residents indicate that they had seen, read or heard a lot or some about this
of the controversy surrounding the Sunroad Enterprises building near Montgomery Field. Fifty-seven percent of residents indicate that they had seen, read or heard a lot or some about this dispute, but 30 percent indicate that they had heard, read or seen nothing. Those saying they had not heard about the issue tend to be younger, less affluent, and live south of Interstate 8. Survey participants also were asked how important the issue is to San Diego. Of those who have been exposed to the Sunroad issue, fewer than half describe the issue as very or extremely serious for the City of San Diego. Said Nienstedt, “the issue is important, but not white-hot.”
The Barometer also tracked how voters assign blame for creating the problems surrounding the Sunroad dispute and who they give credit to for resolving the issue. Not surprisingly, the poll finds that most residents blame Sunroad Enterprises for the problem, with 57 percent assigning a lot of blame to the company and another 25 percent assigning Sunroad some of the blame. Residents next find fault with Mayor Sanders, with 21 percent saying the Mayor shoulders a lot of blame for the problem and another 32 percent saying he bears some responsibility.
The survey also asked residents for their opinions about who deserves credit for resolving the situation. Here the Barometer found that residents believe that City Attorney Aguirre and the FAA deserve substantial credit for their efforts. 61 percent say Aguirre deserves a lot or some credit for resolving the situation while 56 percent say the FAA deserves a lot or some credit. Mayor Sanders efforts are recognized by 53 percent while 36 percent believe Sunroad had made credible efforts to resolve the issue.
SDI also noted the war of words between the Mayor and City Attorney in late June and wanted to gauge the public reaction. At the height of the dispute, the City Attorney accused the Mayor’s office of favoring Sunroad because it was a contributor to the Sanders campaigns. The Mayor replied to Aguirre’s charges of corruption by asserting that no laws had been broken and that Aguirre’s claims were politically motivated. On balance, San Diegans side with the Mayor. Overall, just 12 percent find Aguirre’s statements to be very credible, while 19 percent find the Mayor’s defense very credible. Thirty-four percent say Sanders’ rebuttal has no credibility at all or are unsure about it, but 41 percent say the same thing about Aguirre’s attack. Conservatives, especially, are off-put by Aguirre’s assertions. 35 percent of those on the right side of the ideological spectrum say his statements are not credible at all, while only 5 percent say they are very credible. His credibility among liberals is better, but still, only 16 percent on the left rate his attack on the Mayor as very credible.
“The City Attorney generally gets credit for working to resolve the issue but the charges of corruption he made in late June were not well received,” said W. Erik Bruvold, President and CEO of the San Diego Institute for Policy Research. “Almost a ¼ of San Diegans didn’t think the charges were credible.”
Finally, the Barometer measured the extent to which the Sunroad incident has had a negative impression on the public’s trust in government. Using a question employed in national studies since 1958 to measure how much people trust government to do what is right, the Barometer finds that San Diegans are more distrustful of government when compared to the latest national figures. The survey also shows that, by asking half of the survey participants the question before discussing Sunroad and half of the participants the question after the Sunroad questions, when residents were focused on the Sunroad episode distrust in city government increased 10 percent.
A full analysis of the poll by John Nienstedt can be found on the SDI web site at www.sandiegoinstitute.com. Next week SDI will be releasing additional information from the poll concerning how San Diegans feel about the region’s changing housing market.
About the SDI/Competitive Edge Barometer
SDI and Competitive Edge conduct a public opinion poll of San Diego residents every other month. Each survey is comprised of a set of repeating questions (allowing for longitudinal tracking of public opinions) as well as a set of non-repeating topical questions.
The July Barometer was carried out from June 29 through July 3, 2007 and includes 508 randomly selected adult respondents within the City of San Diego. The survey oversamples the opinions of voters in order to generate a sample size of at least 400 registrants. Results are then weighted back to know population parameters.
This survey was conducted by Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC) in conjunction with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI). SDI and CERC jointly determined the issues to be covered in this survey. SDI provided CERC with background information on the issues contained in the questionnaire and both entities discussed the topics in order to produce an effective questionnaire. Final responsibility for all questions and the data collection presented herein rests with CERC.
The interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish from CERC’s San Diego facility. Professional interviewers were trained specifically for this project. The duration of the average interview was 15 minutes. The random digit dial sample was provided by Scientific Telephone Samples of Foothill Ranch, CA. After collecting the data, results were weighted on the voter registration, gender, and age variables to CERC’s estimates of the overall San Diego City population gathered from the US Census and the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.
Sampling Error
According to statistical theory, the confidence level associated with a sample of this type is such that, with a question where the respondents answer 50% "yes" and 50% "no," 95% of the time the results are within plus or minus ±4.4% of the true value in the city, where true value refers to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every possible qualified respondent. The degree of error is reduced when responses have larger (e.g. 60%-40%, 70%-30%) percentage differences.
In addition to error introduced by sampling variability, there are many other possible sources of bias such as how a question is worded, the question sequence, or individual interviewer techniques. Competitive Edge does everything in its power to minimize these potential sources of bias.
A survey of this type is a good measure of current attitudes that may change over time. This survey should not necessarily serve as an unqualified predictor of events, but as an indicator to the situation in early July 2007.
About the San Diego Institute for Policy Research
The San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI) is a non-partisan organization whose goal is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector throughout San Diego County. Established in 2006, SDI produces high quality policy research papers, economic bulletins, public opinion polls and major events and symposiums to help generate debate and discussion amongst San Diego’s decision makers and citizens alike.
About Competitive Edge Research & Communication
Competitive Edge Research & Communication is San Diego County’s premier polling firm. Established in 1987, the firm provides insight and strategic advice to clients across the state and across the country. Among its many endeavors, the firm conducts its annual Super Bowl poll to determine the big game’s effect on the host city. Competitive Edge is proud to be affiliated with SDI in this effort to provide San Diegans with a reliable barometer of public opinion.
