Press Release

Currently, 66% of adult residents in the City of San Diego approve of the Mayor’s job performance, while 20.5% disapprove. That is a statistically significant drop from January 2007, when 71% approved and 17% disapproved of the job Mayor Sanders was doing. A slightly smaller decline was also found among the subset of registered voters.

 

“The Mayor's job approval has slipped a bit since the first of the year,” said W. Erik Bruvold, President and CEO of the San Diego Institute. Bruvold added, “It could be that the activities of governing, such as proposing water and sewer rate increases, presenting a possible restructuring of the park and recreation department and clashing with the City Council over budget making powers has had an impact on the level of support for Mayor Sanders. The Mayor's reservoir of support will be critical to draw upon later this Spring as he has to present what everyone expects will be an austere 2007 budget.”

 

The approval ratings of City Attorney Mike Aguirre went from 52% approval in January to 49% in March, which is not statistically significant. Meanwhile, approval of the San Diego City Council basically held steady. 

 

This survey also marks the first time that SDI has gone countywide with its Barometer. Residents throughout San Diego County were asked about the job performance of the County Board of Supervisors. SDI’s polling shows that 44% of residents approve of the Board’s job performance, with only 28% of residents disapproving. However, 27% are unsure what grade to give the Board, perhaps reflecting a lack of understanding among many San Diegans as to precisely the county’s responsibilities. 

 

As in January, the Institute also collected information about the issues the public is the most concerned about. Inside the City of San Diego, budget and finance issues continue to be seen as the most important issue (18%). However, public safety issues such as crime (12%) and police pay (3.4%) are a close second.  Crime is a big concern for residents outside the City. While development issues, such as growth (15.5%) and traffic (13%), remain critical, 20% rate crime as the most important issue. 

 

“In the city of San Diego, the fiscal challenges facing City Hall are still at the forefront. But seeing public safety as a major concern in the City for a second consecutive Barometer indicates crime is not a blip,” said John Nienstedt, President of Competitive Edge Research & Communication. “But crime is an even bigger concern in communities outside the city, so gangs, drugs and violence are regional problems.”

 

City residents were also asked their opinions about the recently approved sewer and water rate increases. The public is relatively well-informed about this issue as three-quarters have heard about the City’s decision to raise rates. At present their reaction is negative. While 33% support the increase, 60% oppose it (42% strongly). But the poll also taps into citizens’ competing desires. Residents are evenly split as to whether they want an immediate rate increase to replace aging pipes or whether they want to wait for the water and sewer department to be reformed. Reflecting the dollars and cents impact of the rate increase, upper income residents are far more likely to side with replacing the pipes now, while those earning less than $80,000 annually tend advocate putting off the repairs. The ambiguity vanishes when it comes to whether or not the rate increase should be put to a vote. The public desires a say, with 63% wanting to vote on the issue. Indeed, almost half (49%) strongly feel they should have been given the opportunity to vote on the City’s decision.   

 

Steven Francis, SDI’s Chairman and Founder said, “While the City has the legal right to impose these increases without a vote, it is clear that the public strongly desired to have a say.” He went on, “At a time when San Diego is confronting a fiscal crisis, it is important to seize opportunities to engage the citizenry in frank conversations about needs and reforms. An election would have been exactly that kind of opportunity.”

 

During the coming month, SDI will be releasing the Barometer’s findings, as they are analyzed, on the views of County residents on the Chargers stadium proposal (March 22), economic development efforts (March 29), and, in anticipation of the release of the City’s budget, some views of City residents on police pay, potholes and budget trade-offs (April 5).

 

 

The research was conducted from March 1 – 6, 2007 and included 1,005 randomly selected adult respondents within the County of San Diego. Where noted, results are reported either for the entire county or for only the sample of 501 adults living in the City of San Diego. 

This survey was conducted by Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC) in conjunction with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI). SDI and CERC jointly determined the issues to be covered in this survey. SDI provided CERC with background information on the issues contained in the questionnaire and both entities discussed the topics in order to produce an effective questionnaire. Final responsibility for all questions and the data collection presented herein rests with CERC.

 

The interviewing was conducted March 1^st through the 6^th in English and Spanish from CERC’s San Diego facility. Professional interviewers were trained specifically for this project. The duration of the average interview was 13 minutes. The random digit dial sample was provided by Scientific Telephone Samples of Foothill Ranch, CA. After collecting the data, results were weighted on the voter registration, gender, area and age variables to CERC’s estimates of the overall San Diego City population gathered from the US Census and the San Diego County Registrar of Voters. 

 

 

According to statistical theory, the confidence level associated with a sample of this type is such that, with a question where the respondents answer 50% "yes" and 50% "no," 95% of the time the results are within plus or minus ±3.0% of the true value in the county, where true value refers to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every possible qualified respondent. The degree of error is reduced when responses have larger (e.g. 60%-40%, 70%-30%) percentage differences. Conversely, the margin of error increases when a subset of the entire 1,005 responses is analyzed. The margin of sampling error for the San Diego City sample is plus or minus 4.4%.

 

In addition to error introduced by sampling variability, there are many other possible sources of bias such as how a question is worded, the question sequence, or individual interviewer techniques. Competitive Edge does everything in its power to minimize these potential sources of bias.

 

A survey of this type is a good measure of current attitudes that may change over time. This survey should not necessarily serve as an unqualified predictor of events, but as an indicator to the situation in early March, 2007.

 

 

The San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI) is a non-partisan organization whose goal is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector throughout San Diego County. Established in 2006, SDI produces high quality policy research papers, economic bulletins, public opinion polls and major events and symposiums to help generate debate and discussion amongst San Diego’s decision makers and citizens alike.

 

Competitive Edge Research & Communication is San Diego County’s premier polling firm. Established in 1987, the firm provides insight and strategic advice to clients across the state and across the country. Among its many endeavors, the firm conducts its annual Super Bowl poll to determine the big game’s effect on the host city. Competitive Edge is proud to be affiliated with SDI in this effort to provide San Diegans with a reliable barometer of public opinion.

 

 

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