Press Release

SDI/CERC Barometer Finds Fires Touched More than Half of All County

SAN DIEGO, CA - One out of every two San Diego county residents report that they or someone they know had a home destroyed or severely damaged by last month's wildfires according to public opinion research released today by the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI). 

Between November 4 and 10, SDI and Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC) asked 1,011 county adults about the impacts of the fires and how they feel government officials responded to the crisis.  The survey finds that one-quarter were personally touched by the inferno:  they, a family member or a friend had a home that was either severely damaged or destroyed.  Another 26% know someone else who experienced severe property loss in the fires.

In addition to property loss, the survey shows that evacuations were widespread and did indeed impact more than a half million San Diegans.  Extrapolating from recent US Census data, SDI/CERC estimates that 608,000 county residents evacuated during the firestorm. 

Eighteen percent report that they reside in an area that came under mandatory evacuation orders and eight out of ten of them did, in fact, evacuate.  However, that leaves about 90,000 people who defied official orders and stayed behind.

Those choosing to remain behind were mostly men and were disproportionately located in East and North County.  Twenty-six percent in the north county and 30% in the east county did not evacuate despite mandatory orders to do so.  On the other hand, 95% of respondents who received mandatory evacuation orders in the northern half of the City of San Diego (north of I-8 but inside the city limits) left their homes.  Interestingly, those who ignored the official order to evacuate are just as likely as those who left their homes to rate the government's fire response as good or excellent.  Twenty-one percent say they stayed behind to protect their homes, but 41% say they believed the fires were not a threat.

Another 15% of respondents say they were in voluntary evacuation areas.  Seven out of ten of those folks stayed put, which starkly illustrates the difference between an area's mandatory and voluntary evacuation status. 

Family and friends certainly rode to the rescue during the crisis.  Two-thirds of those who evacuated went to stay with either family or friends.  This equates to a massive quarter million shifting to a family member's quarters and another 165,000 relying on friends.  Despite being showered with media attention, official public centers such as Qualcomm Stadium only accounted for 5% of the evacuees.  Nearly as many (4%) accessed private evacuation centers such as churches.  Another 12%, or 127,000 people, stayed at a hotel or motel.

This was definitely not Katrina.  Residents give the public sector high marks for its response to the fires. One-third rate the government's effort as excellent and another 49% say the response was good.  In Hurricane Katrina's aftermath, San Diego county residents gave local and state governments in Louisiana poor grades for their handling of the crisis.  Only 2% said they were doing an excellent job in that situation. Further, when asked to compare the government's Cedar fire effort in 2003 to the current response, 71% say the quality of response was better this time around (46% say it was much better). 

On the other hand, a substantial minority think a lack of preparation on the part of public officials made the fire damage worse.  Though 55% think no amount of preparation on the part of public officials could have mitigated the damage, 35% disagree, indicating that residents make a distinction between the response (very good) and the preparation (merely good). However, even the results on preparation can be taken as a win for government officials because, after the Cedar fire, public opinion was the opposite of what it is today.  Then 55% believed there was a lack of preparation (36% strongly) and only 32% felt that no amount of preparation could have reduced the damage. 

When it comes to what residents want local officials to be concentrating on, brush management has now moved to the top of the list.  Twenty-eight percent believe that to be better prepared for the next wildfire, local officials ought to make more of an effort to remove dead brush and trees.  Another 20% make it their second highest priority.  This slightly trumps other policies discussed in the aftermath of the fires such as increasing the amount of equipment and aerial vehicles - which was the most favored policy prescription in 2003.  Only 7% now put efforts to combat global warming at the top of their list and just 9% make it their second priority.  The SDI/CERC Barometer found little support for laws limiting development in rural areas that might be more prone to wildfires.

About the SDI/Competitive Edge Barometer

The research was conducted from November 4-10, 2007 and included 1,011 randomly selected adult respondents within the County of San Diego. 

This survey was conducted by Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC) in conjunction with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI).  SDI and CERC jointly determined the issues to be covered in this survey.  SDI provided CERC with background information on the issues contained in the questionnaire and both entities discussed the topics in order to produce an effective questionnaire.  Final responsibility for all questions and the data collection presented herein rests with CERC.

The interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish from CERC's San Diego facility.  Professional interviewers were trained specifically for this project.  The duration of the average interview was 13 minutes.  The random digit dial sample was provided by Scientific Telephone Samples of Foothill Ranch, CA.  After collecting the data, results were weighted on the voter registration, gender, area and age variables to CERC's estimates of the overall San Diego City population gathered from the US Census and the San Diego County Registrar of Voters. 

Sampling Error

According to statistical theory, the confidence level associated with a sample of this type is such that, with a question where the respondents answer 50% "yes" and 50% "no," 95% of the time the results are within plus or minus ±3.1% of the true value in the county, where true value refers to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every possible qualified respondent.  The degree of error is reduced when responses have larger (e.g. 60%-40%, 70%-30%) percentage differences.  Conversely, the margin of error increases when a subset of the entire 1,011 responses is analyzed.  In addition to error introduced by sampling variability, there are many other possible sources of bias such as how a question is worded, the question sequence, or individual interviewer techniques.  Competitive Edge does everything in its power to minimize these potential sources of bias.

A survey of this type is a good measure of current attitudes that may change over time.  This survey should not necessarily serve as an unqualified predictor of events, but as an indicator to the situation in early November, 2007.

About the San Diego Institute for Policy Research

The San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI) is a non-partisan organization whose goal is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector throughout San Diego County.  Established in 2006, SDI produces high quality policy research papers, economic bulletins, public opinion polls and major events and symposiums to help generate debate and discussion amongst San Diego's decision makers and citizens alike.

About Competitive Edge Research & Communication

Competitive Edge Research & Communication is San Diego County's premier polling firm.  Established in 1987, the firm provides insight and strategic advice to clients across the state and across the country.  Among its many endeavors, the firm conducts its annual Super Bowl poll to determine the big game's effect on the host city.  Competitive Edge is proud to be affiliated with SDI in this effort to provide San Diegans with a reliable barometer of public opinion.