SAN DIEGO, CA - Overall approval of the job San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders is doing remained essentially unchanged between July and September according to polling information released today by the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI). In September, 60.4% say they approve of the job Jerry Sanders is doing as Mayor and 25.2% say they disapprove. In July, the Mayor's approval ratings stood at 60.2% approve with 21.5% of the respondents disapproving of the way he was doing his job.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jerry Sanders is doing as Mayor of San Diego?
However the Barometer shows the intensity of the Mayor's support is waning. In January, 31% of San Diegans said that they approved strongly of the job Sanders was doing. That figure has decreased in each succeeding installment of the Barometer and is now down to 18.4 %. When the data for the electorate is isolated, the same trend is evident.
"Six out of every ten San Diegans have a favorable view of the job that Sanders is doing," said W. Erik Bruvold, President & CEO of the San Diego Institute for Policy Research. "That said, the drop-off in intensity of support is important to watch along with the uptick (21.5% in July 25.5% in September) in those disapproving of the Mayor's performance. It will be important to see whether the Mayor keeps his supporters over the course of the next year or whether opinions continue to shift."
Perhaps illustrating that absence can make the heart grow fonder, the City Council saw its approval ratings increase from 41.9% in July to 47.6% in September, even though the body was out of session during the month of August. Indeed, the September approval ratings indicated that the Council is currently the most popular it has been since SDI and CERC began the Barometer in January 2007.
Overall opinions about City Attorney Mike Aguirre have not shifted in a statistically significant way since July either.
But among registered voters, as Competitive Edge Research & Communication's President John Nienstedt reports in his analysis, Aguirre's strong approval slipped six percentage points and the percentage strongly disapproving increased by 5%.
With respect to the issues on which City residents are focused, municipal finances (listed as the top concern of 14.1% of respondent) and crime and security (12.9%) remain the top two issues of concern to San Diego residents. That has be been consistently the case since SDI/CERC started surveying residents in January. County residents concerns also remained consistent, with crime (16.5%) and development (10%) showing up as the top concern for those living outside of the City.
Finally, the overall mood among San Diegans remains uneasy about the direction of the City. Though 45% of San Diego city residents currently say the City is moving in the right direction, 35% say it has gotten off on the wrong track. In contrast, when asked about the County of San Diego, 51.1% of respondents say it is moving in the right direction. Most positive of all are residents outside of the City who were asked about their own community. Among them, 58.2% think things are moving in the right direction in the City or town they reside in.
Steven Francis, Chairman and Founder of the San Diego Institute for Policy Research commented, "There is a significant portion of the population which is worried about the direction the City is moving in." He added, "people continue to believe that municipal finances are one of the biggest issues faced by the city and I believe that they want to see bold policies which fundamentally change the way the City does business."
During the coming weeks, SDI will be releasing the Barometer's findings, as they are analyzed, on the views of residents throughout the County on Water issues (September 24) and among City residents about the proposed Charter reforms (October 2).
About the SDI/Competitive Edge Barometer
The research was conducted from September 4 - 9, 2007 and included 1,005 randomly selected adult respondents within the County of San Diego. Where noted, results are reported either for the entire county or for only the sample of 505 adults living in the City of San Diego.
This survey was conducted by Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC) in conjunction with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI). SDI and CERC jointly determined the issues to be covered in this survey. SDI provided CERC with background information on the issues contained in the questionnaire and both entities discussed the topics in order to produce an effective questionnaire. Final responsibility for all questions and the data collection presented herein rests with CERC.
The interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish from CERC's San Diego facility. Professional interviewers were trained specifically for this project. The duration of the average interview was 20 minutes. The random digit dial sample was provided by Scientific Telephone Samples of Foothill Ranch, CA. After collecting the data, results were weighted on the voter registration, gender, area and age variables to CERC's estimates of the overall San Diego City population gathered from the US Census and the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.
Sampling Error
According to statistical theory, the confidence level associated with a sample of this type is such that, with a question where the respondents answer 50% "yes" and 50% "no," 95% of the time the results are within plus or minus ±3.0% of the true value in the county, where true value refers to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every possible qualified respondent. The degree of error is reduced when responses have larger (e.g. 60%-40%, 70%-30%) percentage differences. Conversely, the margin of error increases when a subset of the entire 1,005 responses is analyzed. The margin of sampling error for the San Diego City sample is plus or minus 4.4%.
In addition to error introduced by sampling variability, there are many other possible sources of bias such as how a question is worded, the question sequence, or individual interviewer techniques. Competitive Edge does everything in its power to minimize these potential sources of bias.
A survey of this type is a good measure of current attitudes that may change over time. This survey should not necessarily serve as an unqualified predictor of events, but as an indicator to the situation in early September, 2007.
About the San Diego Institute for Policy Research
The San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDI) is a non-partisan organization whose goal is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector throughout San Diego County. Established in 2006, SDI produces high quality policy research papers, economic bulletins, public opinion polls and major events and symposiums to help generate debate and discussion amongst San Diego's decision makers and citizens alike.
About Competitive Edge Research & Communication
Competitive Edge Research & Communication is San Diego County's premier polling firm. Established in 1987, the firm provides insight and strategic advice to clients across the country. Among its many endeavors, the firm conducts its annual Super Bowl poll to determine the big game's effect on the host city. Competitive Edge is proud to be affiliated with SDI in this effort to provide San Diegans with a reliable barometer of public opinion.
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