Too often it is easy to focus on immediate policy problems and lose sight of long term challenges. If, like planners and the demographic gurus at the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), one takes a 30 year view, there are several issues looming on the region’s horizon which will test both our politics and our policy making institutions.
First and foremost, forecasters predict San Diego will continue to grow. By 2030, demographers project the population of the region will be nearing four million people. That will mean San Diego will be home to more than 400,000 additional jobs and, most daunting, will require an additional 313,800 housing units. To put that number in some perspective, in 2000 SANDAG found there were less than 313,000 residential units combined in the jurisdictions of Carlsbad, Chula Vista, Escondido, El Cajon, Vista, and San Marcos. Even with the growth in number of housing units, forecasters project more than 93,000 households will have a family member working at a job in San Diego County but living in either southern Riverside County, Imperial County, or Baja California.
Moreover, the majority of this growth is NOT because of people packing up a U-Haul and moving to San Diego. The bulk of our growth will be internal – the result of longer life spans and younger San Diegans starting their own families.
But in addition to this often talked about challenge of population growth, three other demographic challenges will shape our region’s future in critical ways. San Diego will, by 2030, have become significantly grayer. Forecasts indicate that there will be nearly 750,000 San Diegans 65 and older by 2030. Comprising 19% of the region’s population, there will be a higher percentage of senior citizens in San Diego than in present day Florida. Also by 2030 there are projected to be more than 100,000 San Diegans 85 and older, a 179% increase over present day numbers. That will dramatically increase demand on the region’s health care and elder care systems. It will also mean that the region will have to make significant new investments in mass transit, expanding “dial-a-ride” services, as well as adopting policies that encourage the construction of homes and apartments that serve the needs of seniors in communities where driving is not a requirement.
The region is also going to become more diverse. Experts project that by 2030 there will be 672,000 more San Diegans living here that identify themselves as being of Hispanic origin. One of the areas where the percentage is growing the fastest is along the SR 78 corridor. Forecasters predict that the majority of citizens in Escondido (67%) and Vista (58%) will identify themselves as Hispanic. San Marcos (49%) and Oceanside (43%) are also on course to significantly change. That is a major transformation for inland North County, an adjustment that will require significant changes to the way North County sees itself.
Finally, the region is forecast to grow in ways where people are still forced to drive long distances between their homes and their workplaces. While some cities are forecast to grow in a more balanced way, many are not. For instance, forecasters project Poway will see 13,200 more people working at businesses in that city but will add just 1,500 new residential units. Chula Vista is expected to see the development of 28,000 new homes but add only 25,700 jobs. The imbalance between jobs and houses strains infrastructure. It means more cars on the freeways to move between communities. More sustainable growth would see a better geographic balance between job creation and development of the new residential units.
Ultimately, the question that these predictions of change pose is how successfully San Diego transitions from a self-perceived suburban region to one that is more urban in its orientation and outlook. That struggle will bump up against existing institutions and preconceptions. Leadership will be steering a way through those challenges and creatively engaging the public in a dialogue about what San Diego will look like in 2030 and beyond.
Reader Feedback
David Kreitzer Says:
I have major doubts that San Diego County will grow to 4 million people by 2030. Diminishing resources, in particular fresh water, available buildable land, over-loaded trasportation facilities, and the rapidly developing fuel crisis, will force people to move out of Southern California, and likely out of the West. We are close to saturation now with 3.1 million. It amazes me that "planners" totally ignore the necessary resources to support their projections. These numbers also tell us how foolish our immigration laws are to allow one million people a year enter the U.S. in an already over populated nation with declining living standards. Dave Kreitzer, San Diego
May 5, 2008 at 12:29 PM
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I have major doubts that San Diego County will grow to 4 million people by 2030. Diminishing resources, in particular fresh water, available buildable land, over-loaded trasportation facilities, and the rapidly developing fuel crisis, will force people to move out of Southern California, and likely out of the West. We are close to saturation now with 3.1 million. It amazes me that "planners" totally ignore the necessary resources to support their projections. These numbers also tell us how foolish our immigration laws are to allow one million people a year enter the U.S. in an already over populated nation with declining living standards. Dave Kreitzer, San Diego