John E. Nienstedt, President, Competitive Edge Research & Communication
Despite horrific fires, a landslide and a continuing drought, San Diego city residents did not grow more pessimistic over the past two months. The percentage of people believing the city is moving in the right direction now stands at 50%, which is the best it's been since March. Those who think things are on the wrong track now comprise 32% of the population. Taken together, these figures are not significantly better than they were in September, but the slide in civic mood has been arrested.
While the overall mood is about the same as it was two months ago, the Barometer uncovers significant and positive sub-currents:
City residents south of Interstate 8 have become much happier with the city's prospects. The percentage on the south side of town who consider San Diego to be on the right track went from 46% in September to 57% now, while wrong track mentions sank from 35% to 27%. Civic mood remained the same north of I-8 with 43% saying things are headed in the right direction and 36% believing things are on the wrong track. Did the fires stifle that positive movement among northern residents? After all, Rancho Bernardo, in the north, was particularly hard hit. The answer is apparently "no." We analyzed zip codes where the fire destroyed homes and the civic mood remained stable over the past two months in those areas.
While there was no change in the mood of registered voters — who comprise 63% of the population — there has been a big spike in optimism among non-registrants.
There was an upsurge in optimism among Democrats, especially liberal Democrats and Democratic women.
The middle-income segment (earning between $40,000 and $80,000) also exhibited a significant increase in optimism over the last two months.
Currently, those who have lived in San Diego for more than two decades are actually more likely to believe things are headed down the wrong track than believe they are moving in the right direction. That long time residents are more negative than relative newcomers is worrisome because, with stronger community ties, the former tend to be the city's opinion leaders. In a similar vein, we find that voters are significantly less positive about the city's future than San Diegans who are not registered.
The Barometer also shows it is likely that the government's response to the wildfires positively affected opinions about the city's direction. Among the 35% who believe the government's response was excellent, 55% believe the city is headed in the right direction. On the other hand, only 34% of the folks who rated the government's response as fair or worse say things are going in the right direction. Fortunately for local officials, those disappointed with the government's effort amount to only 12% of the population.
County's Civic Mood: Outlying Cities Take Hit, though Overall Mood in County Remains the Same
Satisfaction remains somewhat high in the smaller towns and cities of San Diego County, but residents living in those communities eased off September's optimism. Fifty-nine percent had said things were headed in the right direction, but that's ebbed to 53% now. On the other side, those feeling their town is on the wrong track went from 23% to 30%. This is a significant downturn from September.
As in the City of San Diego, we again find that newer residents are much more upbeat about their city's prospects than those living here more than 20 years and that those who think government did a good or excellent job in responding to the fires are significantly more inclined to say things are headed in the right direction. However, the fires appear to have had more of an impact on civic mood in these outlying areas for two reasons and that has contributed to the downward slide. First, four percent more residents in these areas feel the government's fire response was fair to failing. So a slightly larger portion of the citizenry is critical of the government's performance. Second, and more importantly, we find that those in mandatory or voluntary evacuation areas who did not evacuate from their homes during the fires are significantly more likely to say things are headed in the wrong direction. Therefore, residents in the outlying towns who defied evacuation orders or took them less seriously had their faith in local leaders, which heretofore had been fairly robust, shaken a bit by the wildfire crisis.
In the entire county, the civic mood held steady. Fifty-one percent of county residents (including those residing in the city of San Diego) say things in the County of San Diego are headed in the right direction. The percentage saying things are on the wrong track is now about 32%.
Important City Issues
Residents in the city of San Diego continue to place the city's budget and financial issues at the top of their list of local concerns. One-in-six residents name the city's financial issues their highest city concern, up slightly from 14% in September. As we have noted in the past, the budgetary and financial issues are far more important to upper income residents while they are barely a blip on the radar for those earning less than $40,000 annually. Lower income residents are much more apt to say crime is their biggest concern, as 17% of those earning less than $40,000 say it is number one for them. Overall, crime has slipped to 8%, down from 13% in September.
The new second place issue is infrastructure and roads, which 9% now consider to be the most important issue facing San Diego. This certainly could reflect concerns prompted by the early-October landslides in La Jolla. As one male voter who is a 30-year resident on the city's north side says, "roads, street, highways, sewer and water lines need to be fixed and repaired." The Barometer shows that concerns about infrastructure run particularly high among English-speaking Hispanics, African-Americans and college educated residents. Traffic (7%), local politics (6%) and immigration/border issues (5%) round out the top six most important issues. The wildfires are the most important issue for 4% of the city's population.
Important Issues outside the City
At 6%, the wildfires are a slightly bigger issue outside than inside the city of San Diego. Still, that puts the wildfires in only 6th place when it comes to most important concerns. The top spot now goes to immigration/border issues at 12%. Immigration is, of course, a huge issue for Republicans as well as residents who place themselves on the right side of the ideological spectrum. However, it is also a very big issue for residents in higher income households. Twenty-two percent of those in households earning more than $80,000 say immigration is the number one issue on their minds. Interestingly, residents in the county's southern suburbs are far less likely to mention immigration or the border as an issue. Only 4% who live south of the city of San Diego put it at the top of their list.
Crime takes a big tumble from what had been its preeminent spot early in the year. In March, 20% named it their number one issue but now that has dwindled to only 10%, as the wildfires and immigration have eaten into crime's slice of the public mindshare. In the towns outside the city of San Diego, it is less educated residents who express uncommonly widespread concerns about crime. Thirty-eight percent of those with less than a high school education say crime is the number one issue facing them (mostly gangs and drugs) and among those with a high school education the percentage is 12%. For those with an advanced degree a paltry 2% rank crime as the number one issue. Renters are also more likely than homeowners to mention public safety as their top issue.
Growth/development comes in with 9%. It is more of an issue to those earning more than $80,000 and middle-aged residents. Traffic continues to be a major concern, with 7% putting it at the top. However, newer residents are much less likely to see traffic as their biggest concern, perhaps because their recent experience in another locale was worse than the congestion they are experiencing here.
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