John E. Nienstedt, President, Competitive Edge Research & Communication
The percentage of people believing the city is moving in the right direction remains below 50% at 45%. Those who think things are on the wrong track now comprise 34% of the population. The overall mood has not changed significantly since July.
Those who see the local economy as doing better, young conservatives and longtime residents tend to be more optimistic about the direction of the city. On the other hand, those in middle income households (earning between $40,000 and $80,000 annually) are significantly more pessimistic about the city's direction.
In the entire county and other towns besides San Diego, things are looking up. Fifty-one percent of county residents (including those residing in the city of San Diego) say things in the County of San Diego are headed in the right direction. That is up from March when 47% thought things were heading in the right direction. The percentage saying things are on the wrong track subsided by about 4% as well, meaning that the mood related to the County has significantly improved.
Residents living outside the City of San Diego remain positive about the direction of their towns. Fifty-nine percent say things are headed in the right direction and only 23% say things are off on the wrong track. While not a significant improvement over March, satisfaction remains high in the smaller towns and cities of San Diego County.
Mayor Sanders' Popularity Continues, though Electorate's Intense Support Drops
Mayor Jerry Sanders remains popular with San Diegans. Sixty percent approve of the job the Mayor is doing, while 26% disapprove. However, the percentage of voters who strongly approve of the job he is doing dropped significantly for the second straight Barometer. In July, 23% voiced strong approval of his job performance. Now that figure is at 17%. It had been 31% as recently as May. With 43% of San Diegans now expressing qualified approval of the Mayor's job performance, the next few months could prove pivotal as Sanders tries to regain momentum.
As has been the case, the Mayor gets much stronger support from those who believe the City is headed in the right direction and from ideological conservatives. But, despite the fact that Sanders has overwhelming support from conservatives, the amount of strong support coming from them has ebbed significantly over the past two months.
Sanders has largely gone unblamed for the city's ills since the start of the Barometer in January. Even those who felt the City was on the wrong track generally approved of the Mayor's performance. Now, however, 56% of those who strongly believe things are heading in the wrong direction disapprove of the job the Mayor is doing. His approval ratings are much better among those who only somewhat believe the city is on the wrong track. Only 32% of them disapprove of Sanders's performance while half approve. So, many moderately dissatisfied residents still do not fault the Mayor for the City's ills. And Sanders is doing exceptionally well with those who think things are going in the right direction, as 43% of them strongly approve of his performance and another 30% somewhat approve.
The Mayor also gets significantly better marks from those who are optimistic about the local economy and from middle-aged Republicans.
Looking beyond the City of San Diego's borders -- as the Barometer does every six months - we find the Mayor is largely well-liked in the County. Fifty-six percent approve of the job Sanders is doing as Mayor of San Diego, while 23% disapprove. Approval, however, has fallen 7% and disapproval has crept up by the same amount since March.
City Attorney Aguirre: Steady Overall; Dips among Voters
The Barometer shows that 47% approve and 29% disapprove of City Attorney Mike Aguirre's job performance. There has been no significant movement in the City Attorney's job approval rating since July among the general population. Among voters, however, Aguirre has also seen his strong approval drop (-6%) and the percentage who strongly disapprove increase (+5%). Part of the issue for the City Attorney may be that moderates have moved away from Aguirre. Over the past two months, his strong support in this segment went from 27% to only 4%.
Aguirre gets higher marks from residents in lower income households. More than half those earning less than $60,000 annually approve of the job he is doing. But it is a different story among the more affluent. Only 39% of those with household incomes over $80,000 approve of Aguirre's performance, while 42% disapprove.
Like the Mayor, Aguirre gets higher marks from those who are more optimistic about the local economy.
The City Council Gets a Lift
This month the San Diego City Council matches its best marks since we have been measuring its job performance. Forty-eight percent approve of the job it is doing and 32% disapprove for a net approval rating of +16%. Tying the Council's high water mark set in March may largely be a function of its staying out of the limelight this summer while the City Attorney and Mayor have battled over the Sunroad issue.
The Council's significant upsurge has come mainly from Democrats, ideological moderates, those residing north of Interstate 8 and males. Among Democrats, approval has shot up from 45% in July to 55% today, while disapproval among Democrats has dropped from 34% to 29%.
But, fundamentally keeping the City Council's job approval ratings in check is the fact that the Council is closely tied to the overall civic mood. That is, those who see things as being on the wrong track really tend to downgrade the Council. Though San Diegans who think things are going well tend to think the Council is doing a good job, the optimists are too few to push the Council much higher. For the Council to achieve substantially higher approval ratings, citizens are going to have to start seeing a civic turnaround.
More Pessimism than Optimism Over the City's Financial Situation
As in July, slightly more than one-in-five San Diego residents characterize the city's financial condition as improving, however, 27% now consider the situation to be getting worse. Forty-seven percent think things are staying about the same.
Among registered voters, optimism over the financial trend remains off its May highs, but it has arrested its downward slide.
Those with greater confidence in how the local economy is performing and long time city residents tend to see things in a positive light. On the other hand, African-Americans continue to be more negative about the city's finances.
(Dis)Trust Continues in San Diego City Government
The level of trust in San Diego city government rose slightly. More accurately, the amount of distrust receded by 7%. In July 70% said they trusted San Diego City government only some of the time or none of the time; that figure is now a still sizeable 63%.
In this Barometer we were able to ask residents outside the City of San Diego the trust in government question about their town or city. The results suggest slightly more trust there, as "only" 59% distrust the government of the city or town they reside.
Important City Issues
San Diego residents continue to place the city's budget and financial issues at the top of their list of local concerns. However, the breadth of that concern appears to be diminishing. From a high in March when 20% named city finances their most important concern, the category slid to 17% in July and now stands at 14%. Just behind are concerns over crime and public safety which 13% now consider to be the most important issue facing San Diego.
Whites and upper income residents are more often concerned with the financial issues facing the city. Twenty percent of the former and 27% of the latter place those issues at the top of their lists. In contrast, non-whites and low income residents far more frequently put crime in the top spot over the financial issues. Nineteen percent of non-whites say crime and public safety is their number one concern, while 25% of those earning less than $40,000 annually see crime as most important.
Traffic (7%), local government (7%), housing costs (5%), immigration/border (5%) and infrastructure (5%) are also significant issues.
Important Issues outside the City
The higher emphasis on crime outside the city is evident when we look at the question from a countywide perspective. Seventeen percent of those outside the City of San Diego say the number one issue is crime. Though that is down from 20% in March, crime still easily retains the top spot over traffic (11%) and growth (11%). As in the city of San Diego, crime is an even bigger issue for non-whites. Twenty-five percent place it at the top. Crime is also a significantly greater concern for newer county residents and non-voters. On the other hand, for voters, traffic is a bigger concern than crime is. Fourteen percent of the electorate rates traffic as number one compared to 11% for crime. Those with more education are also much more likely to name traffic (as well as growth) as the number one problem. From a geographic standpoint, traffic is a much bigger issue in the north coastal region, as 18% there say it's their top concern.
Immigration is also a hot issue outside the city and 10% place it at the top of their list. It is also another issue which resonates more with voters than non-voters. Among the former, 13% say it is tops, but among non-voters only 5% say it is their number one concern. Immigration's saliency also divides along ideological lines. While 20% of very conservative residents and 11% of moderate conservatives see it as the most important issue, only 6% of others see it that way. Finally, immigration and border issues are quite hot in the north inland portion of the County. Here (I-15 corridor north of Poway) 20% of the residents focus on the issue.
Education, at 6% is the only other issue that currently gets a substantial amount of attention outside the city.
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